UK export order books return to 'normal' after over 4 years: CBI
Sep 01, 2026
UK manufacturing order books improved noticeably in August after a sharp deterioration over April-July, with export order books recovering to 'normal' for the first time in more than four years, according to the latest Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey.
The survey signalled a firmer export-demand backdrop for manufacturers and sourcing teams tracking UK supplier pipelines, although output volumes continued to fall in the three months to August and selling price expectations remained above historical norms.
Total order books were reported as below 'normal' in August, but to the smallest extent since November 2024, at a weighted balance of -25 per cent compared with -45 per cent in July.
Export order books were reported as “normal” in August for the first time since June 2022, moving to a weighted balance of 0 per cent from -33 per cent in July, the CBI said in a media release.
The improvement was driven by the chemicals, other manufacturing and electrical goods sub-sectors, and the level stood well above the long-run average of -19 per cent.
Output volumes fell in the three months to August, but at a slower pace than in the quarter to July, with the weighted balance improving to -17 per cent from -24 per cent.
Manufacturers expected output volumes to fall again in the three months to November, at -7 per cent, though expectations were the least negative since the beginning of the Iran War.
The release said output fell in 12 of 17 sub-sectors in the three months to August. Expectations for average selling price inflation strengthened to +22 per cent in August from +11 per cent in July, remaining above the long-run average of +8 per cent.
Stocks of finished goods were reported as adequate at +15 per cent, down from +19 per cent in July and slightly above the long-run average of +12 per cent.
Cameron Martin, senior economist, CBI said: "Stronger global demand is providing some welcome relief for manufacturers, with export order books improving sharply and lifting overall orders. Firms also expect output to fall at a much slower pace over the next three months."
Martin said it was too early to judge whether the improvement marked a sustained shift in conditions, citing ongoing cost pressures and stronger selling price expectations.
He said the forthcoming Autumn Budget should avoid creating unnecessary uncertainty or adding extra costs that could put the improvement in expectations at risk, and said the government should use the Budget to support competitiveness through the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme and lower policy-driven energy costs for businesses across the country.
CBI said its latest Industrial Trends Survey was based on responses from 273 manufacturers.
